Pakistan’s macroeconomic regime, interpreted across seven dimensions.
Dimensions
7
Methodology
Deterministic
Confidence Model
Evidence-Gated
Sources
SBP · World Bank · Yahoo Finance
What the seven dimensions say together — what changed, how widespread it is, and how long it has held. Descriptive only: no forecast, no score, no recommendation.
Mixed
Rated dimensions are moving in both directions at once.
Improving
3
Deteriorating
1
Steady
0
Counted across 4 of 7 dimensions. 1 carry no evidenced polarity and are reported without one. 2 could not be classified this run.
Broad-based means at least half of the rated dimensions with usable data are moving that way; moderate, at least a third. Breadth is not assessed below three rated dimensions.
Transitions first, then current conditions and persistent runs.
Ordered by a fixed severity rank, not by any score.
Current condition, the state it followed, and how many consecutive stored snapshots share it. A dash means no earlier state has been recorded yet.
| Dimension | Current | Previous | Persisted | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | falling | insufficient data | 4 snapshots | Improving |
| Monetary Policy | insufficient data | 30+ snapshots | No data | |
| External Sector | deteriorating | improving | 4 snapshots | Deteriorating |
| Liquidity & Credit | contracting | insufficient data | 4 snapshots | Not rated |
| Fiscal Conditions | insufficient data | 30+ snapshots | No data | |
| Growth | accelerating | 30+ snapshots | Improving | |
| Market Stress | pressure easing | mixed | 4 snapshots | Improving |
Observation, interpretation and limitation are kept separate rather than blended into one narrative.
Observed
Read directly from the engine's output and stored snapshots.
Interpreted
Derived from those facts by the documented rules on this page.
Unknown
What the available data cannot support.
Built from 30 stored snapshots (most recent 30 requested). Persistence is counted in snapshots, never in days, because a missed scheduled run must never become a claimed calendar duration.
How the recorded macro regime has evolved across stored snapshots. Every point below is an observation the system actually persisted — nothing is reconstructed from current values.
Based on the 30 snapshots currently available, which is the full 30 requested — older history may exist beyond this window.
One cell per stored snapshot, oldest first. The outlined cell is the most recent.
Every observed state change between consecutive snapshots, newest first.
| Date | Dimension | Change | Type | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20CURRENT | Inflation | insufficient data falling | Coverage gained | 4 snapshots |
| 2026-10-20CURRENT | External Sector | improving deteriorating | DeteriorationREVERSAL | 4 snapshots |
| 2026-10-20CURRENT | Liquidity & Credit | insufficient data contracting | Coverage gained | 4 snapshots |
| 2026-10-20CURRENT | Market Stress | mixed pressure easing | Improvement | 4 snapshots |
| 2026-10-19 | External Sector | mixed improving | Improvement | 1 snapshot |
| 2026-10-19 | Market Stress | insufficient data mixed | Coverage gained | 1 snapshot |
| 2026-10-16 | External Sector | insufficient data mixed | Coverage gained | 3 snapshots |
| 2026-10-11 | Inflation | rising insufficient data | Coverage lost | 9 snapshots |
| 2026-10-11 | External Sector | improving insufficient data | Coverage lost | 5 snapshots |
| 2026-10-11 | Market Stress | mixed insufficient data | Coverage lost | 8 snapshots |
State reversals only — a dimension moving directly between improving and deteriorating. Observed, never predicted.
How long each dimension's current state has held, measured in stored snapshots — never in calendar days, since a missed scheduled run would otherwise become a claimed duration. "N+" means the run reaches the oldest stored snapshot, so it may have begun earlier.
| Dimension | Current state | Held for | Longest observed | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | falling | 4 snapshots | 4 snapshots | continuing |
| Monetary Policynot rated | not classifiable | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| External Sector | deteriorating | 4 snapshots | 4 snapshots | recently reversed |
| Liquidity & Creditnot rated | contracting | 4 snapshots | 4 snapshots | continuing |
| Fiscal Conditions | not classifiable | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| Growth | accelerating | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| Market Stress | pressure easing | 4 snapshots | 4 snapshots | continuing |
Whether today's rated-dimension pattern has been recorded before.
This exact configuration appears in 4 of the 30 available snapshots — 3 of them before the current one.
26 earlier snapshots matched some but not all rated dimensions:
Matching compares persisted state strings for rated dimensions only, across the snapshots stored so far. It describes what has been recorded — it implies nothing about what follows a match.
Dimensions that became, or stopped being, classifiable. Listed separately because a gap in evidence is not an economic event.
Seven dimensions of Pakistan’s current macroeconomic regime — each classified independently, never blended into one score.
falling
Headline CPI inflation is falling, decelerating versus the prior reading.
risingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisinginsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datafallingfallingfallingfalling
falling · 4 consecutive snapshots · Changed from insufficient data
insufficient data
Not enough fresh evidence to classify monetary policy this period.
insufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient data
insufficient data · 30+ consecutive snapshots
deteriorating
External sector position is deteriorating, based on 6 of 6 tracked indicators (reserves, current account, trade balance, exports, imports, remittances).
improvingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovinginsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datamixedmixedmixedimprovingdeterioratingdeterioratingdeterioratingdeteriorating
deteriorating · 4 consecutive snapshots · Changed from improving
contracting
Liquidity and credit conditions are contracting, based on 2 of 2 tracked indicators (M2, private credit growth).
insufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datacontractingcontractingcontractingcontracting
contracting · 4 consecutive snapshots · Changed from insufficient data
insufficient data
Not enough fresh evidence to classify fiscal conditions this period.
insufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient data
insufficient data · 30+ consecutive snapshots
accelerating
GDP growth is accelerating versus the prior annual reading.
acceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingaccelerating
accelerating · 30+ consecutive snapshots
pressure easing
Gold and USD/PKR movement this period: pressure easing. This describes co-occurrence only — no causal relationship between the two is asserted.
mixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedinsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datamixedpressure easingpressure easingpressure easingpressure easing
pressure easing · 4 consecutive snapshots · Changed from mixed