Pakistan’s macroeconomic regime, interpreted across seven dimensions.
Dimensions
7
Methodology
Deterministic
Confidence Model
Evidence-Gated
Sources
SBP · World Bank · Yahoo Finance
What the seven dimensions say together — what changed, how widespread it is, and how long it has held. Descriptive only: no forecast, no score, no recommendation.
Mixed
Rated dimensions are moving in both directions at once.
Improving
2
Deteriorating
1
Steady
1
Counted across 4 of 7 dimensions. 3 could not be classified this run.
Broad-based means at least half of the rated dimensions with usable data are moving that way; moderate, at least a third. Breadth is not assessed below three rated dimensions.
Transitions first, then current conditions and persistent runs.
Ordered by a fixed severity rank, not by any score.
Current condition, the state it followed, and how many consecutive stored snapshots share it. A dash means no earlier state has been recorded yet.
| Dimension | Current | Previous | Persisted | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | rising | 30+ snapshots | Deteriorating | |
| Monetary Policy | insufficient data | 30+ snapshots | No data | |
| External Sector | improving | 30+ snapshots | Improving | |
| Liquidity & Credit | insufficient data | expanding | 27 snapshots | No data |
| Fiscal Conditions | insufficient data | improving | 15 snapshots | No data |
| Growth | accelerating | 30+ snapshots | Improving | |
| Market Stress | mixed | 30+ snapshots | Steady |
Observation, interpretation and limitation are kept separate rather than blended into one narrative.
Observed
Read directly from the engine's output and stored snapshots.
Interpreted
Derived from those facts by the documented rules on this page.
Unknown
What the available data cannot support.
Built from 30 stored snapshots (most recent 30 requested). Persistence is counted in snapshots, never in days, because a missed scheduled run must never become a claimed calendar duration.
How the recorded macro regime has evolved across stored snapshots. Every point below is an observation the system actually persisted — nothing is reconstructed from current values.
Based on the 30 snapshots currently available, which is the full 30 requested — older history may exist beyond this window.
One cell per stored snapshot, oldest first. The outlined cell is the most recent.
Every observed state change between consecutive snapshots, newest first.
| Date | Dimension | Change | Type | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24CURRENT | Fiscal Conditions | improving insufficient data | Coverage lost | 15 snapshots |
| 2026-09-12CURRENT | Liquidity & Credit | expanding insufficient data | Coverage lost | 27 snapshots |
| 2026-09-10 | Liquidity & Credit | insufficient data expanding | Coverage gained | 2 snapshots |
State reversals only — a dimension moving directly between improving and deteriorating. Observed, never predicted.
No state reversals are present in the available snapshot history.
How long each dimension's current state has held, measured in stored snapshots — never in calendar days, since a missed scheduled run would otherwise become a claimed duration. "N+" means the run reaches the oldest stored snapshot, so it may have begun earlier.
| Dimension | Current state | Held for | Longest observed | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | rising | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| Monetary Policynot rated | not classifiable | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| External Sector | improving | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| Liquidity & Creditnot rated | not classifiable | 27 snapshots | 27 snapshots | continuing |
| Fiscal Conditions | not classifiable | 15 snapshots | 15 snapshots | continuing |
| Growth | accelerating | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
| Market Stress | mixed | 30+ snapshots | 30+ snapshots | continuing |
Whether today's rated-dimension pattern has been recorded before.
This exact configuration appears in 15 of the 30 available snapshots — 14 of them before the current one.
15 earlier snapshots matched some but not all rated dimensions:
Matching compares persisted state strings for rated dimensions only, across the snapshots stored so far. It describes what has been recorded — it implies nothing about what follows a match.
Dimensions that became, or stopped being, classifiable. Listed separately because a gap in evidence is not an economic event.
Seven dimensions of Pakistan’s current macroeconomic regime — each classified independently, never blended into one score.
rising
Headline CPI inflation is rising, steady versus the prior reading.
risingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrisingrising
rising · 30+ consecutive snapshots
insufficient data
Not enough fresh evidence to classify monetary policy this period.
insufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient data
insufficient data · 30+ consecutive snapshots
improving
External sector position is improving, based on 4 of 6 tracked indicators (reserves, current account, trade balance, exports, imports, remittances).
improvingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimproving
improving · 30+ consecutive snapshots
insufficient data
Not enough fresh evidence to classify liquidity & credit this period.
insufficient dataexpandingexpandinginsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient data
insufficient data · 27 consecutive snapshots · Changed from expanding
insufficient data
Not enough fresh evidence to classify fiscal conditions this period.
improvingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovingimprovinginsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient datainsufficient data
insufficient data · 15 consecutive snapshots · Changed from improving
accelerating
GDP growth is accelerating versus the prior annual reading.
acceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingacceleratingaccelerating
accelerating · 30+ consecutive snapshots
mixed
Gold and USD/PKR movement this period: mixed. This describes co-occurrence only — no causal relationship between the two is asserted.
mixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixedmixed
mixed · 30+ consecutive snapshots