Economic Health Score
Recession Probability
Default Probability
Confidence Level
However, double‑digit inflation and a sizable fiscal deficit continue to strain the outlook, keeping growth prospects cautious.
Top Risks
Recession · Low. Recession risk stays in the low range as inflation pressure remains elevated but the real policy stance is near neutral, while the current‑account gap persists.
Sovereign Default · Low. Default risk is also low, though a sizable fiscal deficit and a continued current‑account shortfall exert pressure.
Health Score Drivers
Latest Release
SPI Weekly Inflation Release
1 Oct · +0.21% WoW
Next Release
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
27 Jul
Data Status
Intelligence computed · 5 Oct · 11:25 PKT
Data checked · 9 Oct 2026 · 12:07 PKT
9 Oct 2026 · 12:07 PKT · Live from SBP EasyData, PBS, World Bank
Macro Drivers — External Sector & Government Finance
Upcoming Calendar
MON 27 JUL
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
WED 5 AUG
Treasury Bill Auction (3M)
FRI 7 AUG
GDP Growth Release (FY2025-26 Provisional)
Moderate
Pakistan's economy sits in a moderate zone, buoyed by solid remittance inflows and a resilient rupee, while a strong LSM output reading supports short‑term momentum. However, double‑digit inflation and a sizable fiscal deficit continue to strain the outlook, keeping growth prospects cautious.
Top Strengths
Top Weaknesses
Quantitative assessment of Pakistan's macroeconomic risk — updated weekly.
Recession risk stays in the low range as inflation pressure remains elevated but the real policy stance is near neutral, while the current‑account gap persists. Recent output momentum has turned positive, and the currency has shown only modest depreciation, providing a buffer against downside shocks.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
9 Oct 2026
12:07 PKT
Indicators
4/11 Current
7 Stale
Confidence
65%
● Low
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 22/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Default risk is also low, though a sizable fiscal deficit and a continued current‑account shortfall exert pressure. The high policy rate remains restrictive, helping service debt, and the modest currency depreciation together with a comfortable import‑cover horizon act as stabilizers.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
9 Oct 2026
12:07 PKT
Indicators
3/7 Current
4 Stale
Confidence
80%
● Moderate
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 26/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Which economic dimensions are improving, deteriorating, or mixed right now.
Pakistan's economy is composed of three core sectors, each contributing a different share of overall output. Services dominates, followed by agriculture and industry.
Agriculture (% of GDP)
23.0%
Industry (% of GDP)
20.1%
Services (% of GDP)
50.9%
Overall Growth (2025)
3.7%
Quarterly GDP Growth — Real GVA · SBP / PBS, quarterly
Total liquid foreign reserves are split between the State Bank of Pakistan and commercial banks, providing a buffer for import payments.
Net Liquid (SBP)
$21.5B
Commercial Banks
$5.3B
Total Liquid Reserves
$26.8B
Import Cover
4.6 months · 2026-10-02
24-Week Trend · SBP Forex_Arch.xlsx, weekly, net liquid
A separate, broader monthly measure — Total SBP Reserves (incl. gold/SDR/IMF position) — is $17.1B as of 2026-07. See the Foreign Reserves page for both figures side by side.
Historical average interbank exchange rates published by SBP. Values represent monthly average or previous closing rates and are not live market quotes.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData — Monthly Average Interbank Rate
Exchange Rates · Current interbank market rates for PKR cross-pairs, refreshed intraday from Yahoo Finance market data.
Remittances from overseas Pakistani workers remain a key source of foreign exchange, led by the Gulf region.
Total Remittances
$3.7B
vs Prior Month
+0.7% vs Jul 2026
Latest Release
2026-08-31
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The current account and trade balance track Pakistan's external financing needs, while M2 growth reflects domestic liquidity conditions.
Current Account
-$0.33B
Trade Balance (Goods)
-$3.31B
Foreign Reserves (SBP)
$21.4B
Money Supply (M2)
Rs 43.95T
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Consumer price inflation has eased from last year's peak but remains elevated, driven mainly by food, housing and transport costs.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Weekly Inflation (SPI) — YoY % · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, weekly
Beyond the headline CPI, core (non-food, non-energy) and wholesale price measures show how broad-based inflationary pressure is across the economy.
CPI Inflation (YoY)
11.1%
Core Inflation (Urban NFNE)
8.8%
WPI Inflation (YoY)
11.8%
SBP Policy Rate
11.50%
Core Inflation — 24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The State Bank's policy rate anchors short-term borrowing costs, reflected in Treasury Bill and Pakistan Investment Bond auction yields.
SBP Policy Rate — Recent Trend · SBP EasyData, as-needed
Policy rate, money market yields, core and wholesale prices, and the external accounts that shape Pakistan's financing needs.
Precious metals, energy benchmarks, and US rates that drive global risk appetite and Pakistan's import bill.
Trade flows, investment, competitiveness, industrial output, credit expansion, and Pakistan's fiscal position.
AI-curated Pakistan economic news from verified sources.
IMF reaches tentative $1.21 billion bailout deal with Pakistan
DW.com
PSX down despite IMF agreement
The decline in the stock index signals investor concerns and potential capital outflows despite the IMF deal.
Express Tribune
PSX edges up 120 points amid profit-taking
The modest rally reflects improved investor confidence and potential inflow of funds.
The Express Tribune
Chinese Ambassador, Hamza Shehbaz discuss trade, investment and CPEC
https://cpecinfo.com/
Pakistan has 48% of the poor in MENAAP region, where poverty remains at pre-pandemic levels—World Bank
A high share of poverty indicates stagnant economic conditions, increasing fiscal strain and limiting domestic demand.
ThePrint
Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement for $1.2bn tranche
Dawn
Monthly Summary on Foreign Trade Statistics for September, 2026
The trade statistics release provides data but no immediate effect on economic conditions.
PBS Official Releases
Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended on 01-10-2026
The SPI report informs about price trends but does not directly alter the macroeconomic outlook.
PBS Official Releases