Economic Health Score
Recession Probability
Default Probability
Confidence Level
However, a modest improvement in large‑scale manufacturing output and a relatively stable import‑cover ratio provide some cushion against external shocks.
Top Risks
Recession · Elevated. Recession risk sits in the elevated range, driven by persistent inflationary pressure and a current‑account shortfall, while the real policy stance offers little room for easing.
Sovereign Default · Low. Sovereign‑default risk remains low, supported by a high policy rate that eases debt‑service pressures and a manageable import‑cover level, despite a sizable fiscal gap and external imbalance.
Health Score Drivers
Latest Release
Imports Release (September 2026)
15 Oct · $6.49B
Next Release
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
27 Jul
Data Status
Intelligence computed · 19 Oct · 11:25 PKT
Data checked · 23 Oct 2026 · 04:21 PKT
23 Oct 2026 · 04:21 PKT · Live from SBP EasyData, PBS, World Bank
Macro Drivers — External Sector & Government Finance
Upcoming Calendar
MON 27 JUL
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
WED 5 AUG
Treasury Bill Auction (3M)
FRI 7 AUG
GDP Growth Release (FY2025-26 Provisional)
Moderate
Pakistan's macro outlook remains moderate, with inflation still running above 11% and a sizable fiscal deficit weighing on fiscal sustainability. However, a modest improvement in large‑scale manufacturing output and a relatively stable import‑cover ratio provide some cushion against external shocks.
Top Strengths
Top Weaknesses
Quantitative assessment of Pakistan's macroeconomic risk — updated weekly.
Recession risk sits in the elevated range, driven by persistent inflationary pressure and a current‑account shortfall, while the real policy stance offers little room for easing. A modest currency movement, adequate import cover and robust private‑credit growth provide some buffer.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
23 Oct 2026
04:21 PKT
Indicators
8/11 Current
3 Stale
Confidence
85%
● Moderate
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 24/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Sovereign‑default risk remains low, supported by a high policy rate that eases debt‑service pressures and a manageable import‑cover level, despite a sizable fiscal gap and external imbalance. The modest currency trajectory further underpins stability.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
23 Oct 2026
04:21 PKT
Indicators
6/7 Current
1 Stale
Confidence
95%
● High
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 26/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Which economic dimensions are improving, deteriorating, or mixed right now.
Pakistan's economy is composed of three core sectors, each contributing a different share of overall output. Services dominates, followed by agriculture and industry.
Agriculture (% of GDP)
23.0%
Industry (% of GDP)
20.1%
Services (% of GDP)
50.9%
Overall Growth (2025)
3.7%
Quarterly GDP Growth — Real GVA · SBP / PBS, quarterly
Total liquid foreign reserves are split between the State Bank of Pakistan and commercial banks, providing a buffer for import payments.
Net Liquid (SBP)
$21.5B
Commercial Banks
$5.3B
Total Liquid Reserves
$26.8B
Import Cover
4.3 months · 2026-10-16
24-Week Trend · SBP Forex_Arch.xlsx, weekly, net liquid
A separate, broader monthly measure — Total SBP Reserves (incl. gold/SDR/IMF position) — is $21.7B as of 2026-09. See the Foreign Reserves page for both figures side by side.
Historical average interbank exchange rates published by SBP. Values represent monthly average or previous closing rates and are not live market quotes.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData — Monthly Average Interbank Rate
Exchange Rates · Current interbank market rates for PKR cross-pairs, refreshed intraday from Yahoo Finance market data.
Remittances from overseas Pakistani workers remain a key source of foreign exchange, led by the Gulf region.
Total Remittances
$3.6B
vs Prior Month
-1.9% vs Aug 2026
Latest Release
2026-09-30
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The current account and trade balance track Pakistan's external financing needs, while M2 growth reflects domestic liquidity conditions.
Current Account
-$0.36B
Trade Balance (Goods)
-$3.16B
Foreign Reserves (SBP)
$21.5B
Money Supply (M2)
Rs 44.27T
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Consumer price inflation has eased from last year's peak but remains elevated, driven mainly by food, housing and transport costs.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Weekly Inflation (SPI) — YoY % · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, weekly
Beyond the headline CPI, core (non-food, non-energy) and wholesale price measures show how broad-based inflationary pressure is across the economy.
CPI Inflation (YoY)
10.3%
Core Inflation (Urban NFNE)
8.6%
WPI Inflation (YoY)
13.3%
SBP Policy Rate
11.50%
Core Inflation — 24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The State Bank's policy rate anchors short-term borrowing costs, reflected in Treasury Bill and Pakistan Investment Bond auction yields.
SBP Policy Rate — Recent Trend · SBP EasyData, as-needed
Policy rate, money market yields, core and wholesale prices, and the external accounts that shape Pakistan's financing needs.
Precious metals, energy benchmarks, and US rates that drive global risk appetite and Pakistan's import bill.
Trade flows, investment, competitiveness, industrial output, credit expansion, and Pakistan's fiscal position.
AI-curated Pakistan economic news from verified sources.
SBP-held forex reserves rise by $19mn to $21.49bn
A $19 million increase in SBP’s foreign‑exchange reserves modestly strengthens Pakistan’s external buffer.
Investify
Pakistani Scholars Join Global Radar Conference in China
The Daily CPEC
Indian rupee snaps eight-day rally as oil climbs to highest since May
Business Recorder
Pakistan rupee records gain against US dollar
The rupee’s gain against the dollar lowers import costs and eases external debt servicing.
Business Recorder
Pakistan’s GDP growth seen at 3.8% in FY27, inflation to hit 8.2%
Projected 3.8% GDP growth signals moderate expansion, while 8.2% inflation remains a concern.
Investify
Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan GDP to contract 1.3% in 2026, IMF says
Reuters
IMF forecasts 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, 6.6% growth in 2027
Express Tribune
PSX plunges over 2,000 points as selling pressure mounts
A plunge of over 2,000 points on the PSX erodes investor confidence and may trigger capital outflows.
Express Tribune