Economic Health Score
Recession Probability
Default Probability
Confidence Level
Top Risks
Recession · Elevated. Recession risk remains elevated as inflation stays firmly high, industrial output has slipped month‑on‑month, and foreign exchange reserves provide only a thin import cover.
Sovereign Default · Elevated. Sovereign default risk is also elevated, driven by a thin import cover, a sizable fiscal shortfall, and a current‑account deficit that erodes external financing capacity.
Health Score Drivers
Latest Release
SPI Weekly Inflation Release
3 Sept · +0.65% WoW
Next Release
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
27 Jul
Data Status
Intelligence computed · 7 Sept · 11:25 PKT
Data checked · 7 Sept 2026 · 21:41 PKT
7 Sept 2026 · 21:41 PKT · Live from SBP EasyData, PBS, World Bank
Macro Drivers — External Sector & Government Finance
Upcoming Calendar
MON 27 JUL
SBP Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
WED 5 AUG
Treasury Bill Auction (3M)
FRI 7 AUG
GDP Growth Release (FY2025-26 Provisional)
Moderate
Economic health sits in the moderate range, buoyed by solid quarterly GDP growth and a relatively competitive real effective exchange rate, but weighed down by tightening monetary conditions, a sharp slowdown in large‑scale manufacturing output, and a weak import‑cover metric that underscores external financing pressures.
Top Strengths
Top Weaknesses
Quantitative assessment of Pakistan's macroeconomic risk — updated weekly.
Recession risk remains elevated as inflation stays firmly high, industrial output has slipped month‑on‑month, and foreign exchange reserves provide only a thin import cover. However, the modest depreciation of the rupee, strong growth in private credit, and continued quarterly GDP expansion offer some offsetting momentum.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
7 Sept 2026
21:41 PKT
Indicators
6/11 Current
5 Stale
Confidence
70%
● Moderate
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 34/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Sovereign default risk is also elevated, driven by a thin import cover, a sizable fiscal shortfall, and a current‑account deficit that erodes external financing capacity. Nonetheless, the rupee’s modest depreciation and a firmly high policy rate provide a degree of fiscal and monetary discipline that tempers the downside.
Key Risks
Strengths
Transparency
Last Calculated
7 Sept 2026
21:41 PKT
Indicators
5/7 Current
2 Stale
Confidence
90%
● High
Model score · −10 pts per fallback indicator 37/100 · −5 pts per stale indicator · AI explanation via OpenRouter
Which economic dimensions are improving, deteriorating, or mixed right now.
Pakistan's economy is composed of three core sectors, each contributing a different share of overall output. Services dominates, followed by agriculture and industry.
Agriculture (% of GDP)
23.0%
Industry (% of GDP)
20.1%
Services (% of GDP)
50.9%
Overall Growth (2025)
3.7%
Quarterly GDP Growth — Real GVA · SBP / PBS, quarterly
Total liquid foreign reserves are split between the State Bank of Pakistan and commercial banks, providing a buffer for import payments.
Net Liquid (SBP)
$17.1B
Commercial Banks
$0.0B
Total Liquid Reserves
$0.0B
Import Cover
0.0 months · 2026-08-21
24-Week Trend · SBP Forex_Arch.xlsx, weekly, net liquid
A separate, broader monthly measure — Total SBP Reserves (incl. gold/SDR/IMF position) — is $17.1B as of 2026-07. See the Foreign Reserves page for both figures side by side.
Historical average interbank exchange rates published by SBP. Values represent monthly average or previous closing rates and are not live market quotes.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData — Monthly Average Interbank Rate
Exchange Rates · Current interbank market rates for PKR cross-pairs, refreshed intraday from Yahoo Finance market data.
Remittances from overseas Pakistani workers remain a key source of foreign exchange, led by the Gulf region.
Total Remittances
$3.6B
vs Prior Month
+4.5% vs Jun 2026
Latest Release
2026-07-31
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The current account and trade balance track Pakistan's external financing needs, while M2 growth reflects domestic liquidity conditions.
Current Account
-$0.33B
Trade Balance (Goods)
-$3.15B
Foreign Reserves (SBP)
$17.1B
Money Supply (M2)
Rs 43.73T
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Consumer price inflation has eased from last year's peak but remains elevated, driven mainly by food, housing and transport costs.
24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
Weekly Inflation (SPI) — YoY % · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, weekly
Beyond the headline CPI, core (non-food, non-energy) and wholesale price measures show how broad-based inflationary pressure is across the economy.
CPI Inflation (YoY)
11.1%
Core Inflation (Urban NFNE)
8.8%
WPI Inflation (YoY)
11.8%
SBP Policy Rate
11.50%
Core Inflation — 24-Month Trend · SBP EasyData, monthly
The State Bank's policy rate anchors short-term borrowing costs, reflected in Treasury Bill and Pakistan Investment Bond auction yields.
SBP Policy Rate — Recent Trend · SBP EasyData, as-needed
Policy rate, money market yields, core and wholesale prices, and the external accounts that shape Pakistan's financing needs.
Precious metals, energy benchmarks, and US rates that drive global risk appetite and Pakistan's import bill.
Trade flows, investment, competitiveness, industrial output, credit expansion, and Pakistan's fiscal position.
AI-curated Pakistan economic news from verified sources.
China’s shifting priorities require Pakistan to build institutional capacity
| Associated Press Of Pakistan
SE Fruits & Vegetables secures PSX approval for IPO to raise up to Rs1.92bn
The IPO raises fresh capital, deepens the equity market and supports corporate financing.
Business Recorder
Gold price declines further in Pakistan amid global market slump
Falling gold prices lower import costs and inflationary pressure, easing balance‑of‑payments stress.
Express Tribune
China’s development model offers lessons for Pakistan
cpecinfo.com
PSX tumbles 1,693 points as selling pressure intensifies
A sharp plunge in the PSX undermines investor confidence and restricts corporate fundraising.
Express Tribune
Pakistan's cheap rupee paradox
A cheap rupee raises import bills and inflation, increasing macro‑economic vulnerabilities.
The Express Tribune
Price to sales forward of Archroma Pakistan Limited – PSX:ARPL
The valuation metric of a single listed firm has negligible macroeconomic impact.
TradingView
PM launches scheme allowing overseas Pakistanis to open bank accounts remotely
Remote bank accounts for overseas Pakistanis are likely to boost remittances and foreign‑currency inflows.
Arab News PK